EPA's basis for Tesla Model 3 fuel savings

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 03/01/2019 at 10:20 • Filed to: None

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From the fine print: The average new vehicle gets 22 mpg and costs $12,600 to fuel over 5 years. Cost estimates are based on 15,000 miles per year at $0.12 per kW-hr [assumption for gas cars is $3.70 per gallon - there is a slight discrepancy between the fine print on the two graphics below].

Crunching my own numbers: (15,000/22) x $3.70 x 5 = $12,614

(15,000/100) x 27 x 0.12 x 5 = $2,430 (per kW-hrs/100 miles, not MPGe)

You’d save $2000 per year in fuel if this mileage/pricing applies to you. Would be interesting to compare this against the expected depreciation of a base Model 3 over 5 years.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/label/learn-more-electric-label.shtml

(I believe this sticker is for the mid-range model - base may actually be more efficient, due to lighter weight)

The Ghost of Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:26

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I’d be interested in a deep dive cost of ownership study that includes vehicle depreciation 

random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:30

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Here in el-cheapo land where my electricity is like $ 0.04 kWh, I’d save even MORE

WilliamsSW > The Ghost of Oppo 03/01/2019 at 10:30

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  Agree, though it would be dependent on your local electric rates and how much you charge at home vs public stations. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > random001 03/01/2019 at 10:34

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Whoa! Lots more! 

Tekamul > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:34

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The 27 needs a charge efficiency ratio.  Otherwise your math checks out. 

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:37

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I could save 2k per year by driving a versa instead of an M3, but who wants that.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > The Ghost of Oppo 03/01/2019 at 10:37

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This is a couple years old, and based on a Model S.

random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:40

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I did a calculation at one point. If I could commute in an electric car, I’d spend something ridiculous like $120 A YEAR in “fuel”.

This assumes 10,000 miles, 3.5 miles per kW, and $0.04 per kWh. There are deals to get a fixed rate of $0.035/kWh at times.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:41

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Wow people are getting some SHIT mileage if 22 is the average. My '06 STi gets that on a good day but I consider it to be frivolous gas guzzling. Considering all of the 40+ out there, the amount of <15 trucks out there must be skewing the average. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tekamul 03/01/2019 at 10:45

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Good thought. So, y ou don’t think that number includes that? This is just loss of charge while sitting inactive, right ?

The Ghost of Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:45

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T l;dw for everyone else, the Model S has a relatively low depreciation rate compared to ICE vehicles , other EVs have a much faster depreciation rate.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 03/01/2019 at 10:46

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Average, new, mixed cycle. Yes - lots of people buy big trucks and SUVs. 

Tekamul > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 10:48

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The 27 reflects how much power exists the battery to drive 100 miles.  But to put that 27kWh back, you need to supply ~30kWh, as some of that power turns to heat in the cord, BMS and batteries during charging. Depending on you charge method (L1/2/3) there’s a different accepted ratio. 

nermal > The Ghost of Oppo 03/01/2019 at 10:49

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The worst depreciating cars have a 5yr residual of about 25% of MSRP. Assuming $35k MSRP for a base Model 3 , that means the car will at worst lose $26,250 over 5 years. Take out the $3,750 tax credit and that’s $22,500, or $4,500 / yr.

Maintenance costs will be significantly lower than a gas car. You won’t need to do oil changes, filters, etc. Tires still wear out at the same pace, so that’s a wash. Call it $1,500 in maintenance for one set of tires and some wiper blades.

By comparison, NADA estimates ~$4,500 in maintenance costs for a BMW 330 over 5 yrs .

TCO for a Model 3 should be better than most comparable cars in its price class. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > random001 03/01/2019 at 10:50

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Seems like there’s money to be made here. I wonder how many ride- and car-sharing companies will be buying up Teslas at this new low price-point. Thinking central charging in a heavily-populated area where clients could easily walked to a shared garage, check out a car, keep it as long as they’d like and return it to the garage when done. Could set up your own new company, or run it through Turo. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tekamul 03/01/2019 at 10:52

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Gotcha - interesting. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > The Ghost of Oppo 03/01/2019 at 10:53

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Will the Model 3 track with the Model S or other EVs? 

The Ghost of Oppo > nermal 03/01/2019 at 10:54

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“The worst depreciating cars have a 5yr residual of about 25% of MSRP. “

You could have saved yourself some characters and just said “VWs...”   

The only thing I would argue is that a Model 3's tires will wear out slightly faster than the average gas car because torque.

Ash78, voting early and often > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 03/01/2019 at 10:55

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We have an Odyssey, and hilly suburban usage is 17.5 in the long run (pretty consistently 17 summer, 18 winter; 22-25 highway). It’s just the norm with all of these big vehicles today, no matter what the EPA sticker says.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper 03/01/2019 at 11:00

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Very good point. Seems like inside a Model 3 is not a bad place to be, though - especially for a pure commuter. 

The Ghost of Oppo > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 03/01/2019 at 11:00

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When you consider the top selling vehicles are the Fseries, Silverado, and Ram, then a bunch of mid-sized SUVs only getting low 20's in the city , it isn’t surprising

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 03/01/2019 at 11:14

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I get 20 , even worse in my little pickup. 22 may as well be a Prius to me!

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 11:16

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That is true, but the interior isn’t for me:

Also I must be one with what I’m driving. My S3 was a super nice place to be and a super fun car, but we didn’t mesh.

The Ghost of Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 11:16

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Good question. The badge alone helps lift it above the rest of the field , but the 3 is definitely not the S.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > The Ghost of Oppo 03/01/2019 at 11:21

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Yes, but... Bigger, more expensive luxury sedans usually lose value faster than their smaller, cheaper brethren. Will be interesting to see. Buying used doesn’t get you the tax benefit, so that throws another wrench in the mix. 

loki03xlh > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 11:23

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True. Almost all of my vehicles are gas hogs: truck: 17 mpg, suv: 16 mpg, car: 14 mpg, bike: 45 mpg.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper 03/01/2019 at 11:23

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If I was in stop & go traffic my whole commute, I could do it, but yeah.

Surprising you didn’t mesh with the S3. Ergonomics, etc. are super-important to me as well. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > loki03xlh 03/01/2019 at 11:30

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I have an ‘08 M3 and just bought a new Tacoma last year, so I’m not winning any efficiency awards, either . Mrs. addiction drives a ‘12 MDX.

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 11:48

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lolol, who the fuck pays $0.12/kW h?

That hasn’t been the average since 2011.

California’s average is $0.1534/kWh. So it’ll actually cost you $3106.35.
Average g as prices are currently $3.291/gal. Giving you $11,219.32.

Poof. There went your cost savings. And it’s way  worse in, say, Ohio. Where gas is currently $2.359/gal and a kWh is $0.134.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 11:52

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because racecar pays $0.04 kWh...

Hard to tell what gasoline prices will average over the next 5 years.

I was just giving the info that the EPA is using to get to these numbers. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 11:56

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Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 12:01

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Yeah, I’m bitching about the EPA once again using bogus numbers and never updating them to reality. Also, the chart you posted is complete bullshit. They’re right-wing propagandists using kWh wholesale distribution rates, not retail rates, and cherry-picking.

Retail rates in all those ‘gray’ areas are way fucking higher than they’re stating. It is a statement of fact that not a single state is below $0.09/kWh.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 12:06

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It was really the missing pedal. I just have to have it.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 12:09

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Sorry for the bad map - was hoping EIA would have one, but couldn’t find it.

EIA still shows nationwide residential average as 12.47 cents. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 12:10

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That’s an average per state, would be interesting to know a true average per home, nationwide. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 12:13

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Looks like it’s more like 0 .13, according to this (have to pay to see source data...).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/200199/residential-sector-electricity-prices-in-the-us-since-1975/

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 12:16

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Maybe I’ll have to make my own map of state-by-state projected savings using current gasoline and kWh cost in each area...

Long_Voyager, Now With More Caravanny Goodness > Ash78, voting early and often 03/01/2019 at 12:17

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That’s terrible!

I average 22.5 mpg from my 94 Voyager with a 3.8 V6, lift/ATs, and a huge basket on the roof in mixed driving with a heavy foot!

Long_Voyager, Now With More Caravanny Goodness > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) 03/01/2019 at 12:19

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Sadly a lot of new vehicles can only average 22 mpg in real world use. Meanwhile I average 32 mpg from my car and 22.5 from my van....

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper 03/01/2019 at 12:21

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I know this affliction. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/01/2019 at 13:33

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Owning a volt and running numbers last winter, I was confused when my kwh input didn’t match up to used and when compared to my kWh/mile calculations.

A giant flaw in the epa rests is that the 20f cold weather testing is used only for emission and not fuel economy. Meanwhile a summer ac test is. Now for a gas car the heat output is a given, but the opposite is true. If you don’t have a garage, and live in a cold place   this isn’t going to give an accurate number

Neil drives a beetle and a fancy beetle > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/01/2019 at 13:58

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I think I  pay 9-10 cents depending on if it’s summer or winter . I’m in Minnesota.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/01/2019 at 18:16

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Very good point!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 03/05/2019 at 14:07

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https://oppositelock.kinja.com/5-year-fuel-savings-of-going-electric-by-state-1833061501

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tekamul 03/05/2019 at 14:08

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https://oppositelock.kinja.com/5-year-fuel-savings-of-going-electric-by-state-1833061501

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > random001 03/05/2019 at 14:08

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... i gnore...

random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 14:12

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Seems rude....

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > random001 03/05/2019 at 14:17

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Sorry - I was sending you the link to the map I made, but then I noticed you’d seen it. 

random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 14:24

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I follow you like a silent electric stalker...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > random001 03/05/2019 at 14:54

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Haha - you’re just another OPPO addict like me. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 12:56

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Yes, but the real discussion would be about carbon, and other emissions, and the environmental cost of creating the lithium/ion batteries. I don’t know how those costs compare relatively.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks 04/11/2019 at 13:00

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Why do you continually mince your words?

What I would like to be able to do, and I cannot, is generate some cost to the planet numbers with coal fired electricity generation, transmission of electricity, carbon emissions, manufacture of lithium/ion batteries and mining rare earth minerals, all that good stuff. For (liberal, tree-hugging) me, the cost of gasoline versus my electricity bill is unimportant. I drive four miles to my job and I can ride a bicycle if I have to.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 04/11/2019 at 14:15

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Discussing dollar costs only here.

Environmental costs is a much more complication question. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 04/11/2019 at 15:56

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*complicated [rolls eyes]

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 16:34

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Stupid Otto Correct.

I have a brother-in-law who is super-progressive and drives a Prius and he and my wife’s sister obsess over gas mileage when I suspect that there’s actually little net gain for the planet by their driving a hybrid.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 04/11/2019 at 16:37

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